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Monday, June 4, 2007

Moving to Thousand Oaks Ventura County?

Home prices up as sales slide

Average cost in Ventura County reaches $691,710; T.O. values down from 2006
VenturaCountyStar.com


Saturday, May 26, 2007

Ventura County's median price for existing single-family homes edged up 1.5 percent in April to $691,710, the first year-over-year increase since September, the California Association of Realtors reported Friday.
It was the best showing since the median hit a record $710,910 in August.
But total sales fell 20.8 percent from April 2006, continuing a sharp pullback from the frenzied buying days that began to cool in 2005. Year-over-year monthly sales have declined in double-digit percentages for the past year, ranging from 16.3 percent to 41.5 percent. April sales were also down 12.4 percent from March.
Last month's median price the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less was up from $681,190 in April 2006 and 2.8 percent from $672,550 in March, the CAR reported.
The statewide median was $597,640, up 6.2 percent from the same month last year, but total sales plummeted 27.8 percent from April 2006.
The area's median price can increase while sales totals fall because it is mostly more expensive properties that are moving, said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast Project in Santa Barbara.



"We're actually seeing that," Schniepp said. "The higher-end market is less affected by the sales slump than the lower-end market right now."
Ventura County's median has ranged from about $670,000 to $710,000 since the summer of 2005, Schniepp said. And that shouldn't change much before next year.
Price forecast flat for '07
"If you look at Ventura County prices over time, they're in kind of a sawtoothed pattern," Schniepp said. "They go up and down, but they've basically been flat since the summer of 2005."
He still is forecasting that area home prices will be essentially flat through 2007, but sales volumes should bottom out and stabilize toward the end of the year and into 2008.
Joe Virnig, president of the Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors, said the increase in the median price in April does not mean real estate prices are going up across the board.
The median is as much a factor of the types of properties that are selling as their prices, he said.
And a sales slowdown is to be expected after years of unsustainable price appreciation.
"There are some people in my industry who see things only as wonderful and rosy when things are clearly not that way," said Virnig, a broker with Remax Gold Coast Realty in Ventura. "I think it's better to be realistic about the current situation because you have to know where you are today so you can predict accurately where things are going tomorrow."
Last month's median in the Thousand Oaks area was $796,000, down about 5 percent from $837,000 in April 2006, said Allen Reznick, president of the Conejo Valley Association of Realtors.
A total of 122 Conejo Valley properties changed hands in April, down four from the same month in 2006. "So we were pretty good on units, but our median price was down a little bit," Reznick said.
T.O. condo sales down
Thousand Oaks condominium sales fell sharply, however, with 52 escrows closed in April compared with 81 in April 2006. Reznick blamed the decline on problems in the subprime loan market that have prompted lenders to tighten qualification standards.
That typically affects first-time buyers who are trying to break in to the market at the lower end.
Ventura County has many neighborhoods where homes are selling at somewhat lower prices than a few years ago, Virnig said.
Almost no properties in those areas changed hands for months until sellers began reducing their prices.
"Now you're seeing people with asking prices that reflect the new reality and those homes are selling," Virnig said.
Statewide, closed escrow sales of existing homes totaled 373,280 in April at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information the CAR collected from about 90 multiple listings services.
"Although the median price of a home in California continues to rise, this reflects the falloff in sales in the lower-priced markets of the state where new home inventories and foreclosures are competing with the existing home market," California Association of Realtors Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young said in a release.

"Fewer sales from these regions coupled with modest gains in some of the stronger coastal markets are pushing the median price for the state up slightly."
CAR reported the 10 California cities with the highest median home prices last month were Manhattan Beach, $1.85 million; Los Altos, $1.71 million; Saratoga, $1.55 million; Burlingame, $1.50 million; Laguna Beach, $1.46 million; Newport Beach, $1.40 million; Los Gatos, $1.20 million; Santa Barbara, $1.20 million; Palos Verdes Estates, $1.18 million; Mill Valley and Rancho Palos Verdes, both at $1.11 million.
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